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Interesting to read the new Pollwatch survey of (published) surveys, produced by ComRes, the public affairs research company, which takes a look across the European political scene and reports on public opinion in all major countries.

Compare the contrasting performance ratings of the major countries’ leaders and of their parties and the way that they are perceived to have managed, or not, the worst recession in generations.

In Germany Merkel undoubtedly looks as if she is going to be re-elected, helped no doubt by splits on the Left with the Social Democrats constantly glancing over their shoulder at the full-blown anti-capitalists of Die Linke.  

In France, over half the population consider Sarkozy to be a good president which is quite an achievement in a country that is often highly polarised between traditional Left and Right.  Again, the centre-right Presidency is helped by the lack-lustre performance of the Socialists and the challenge presented to the latter by the Trotskyists.

Despite major scandals, Berlusconi, a business interest as much as a political leader, is holding on to a 12% lead over a crumbly opposition and only the Spanish Socialists, in arguably the worst economic situation of all the major European powers, appear to be matching their centre-right rivals in the polls.

Both France and Germany have recently shown small but positive sign of economic recovery. While the mood is cautious there seems to be a level of satisfaction at how governments are dealing with the crisis. In both cases, the ruling centre-right has not made the mistake of adopting full-blown Anglo-Saxon economic liberalism which ensures both that the modernisers on the Left are discomforted and that they hold on to the manstream nationalist vote.

 The contrast with the UK is startling. The government of the day under Brown is wallowing in the polls and a not particularly impressive opposition party has a huge advantage that looks set to deliver them a landslide in next year’s elections - if they can keep their current lead (not at all an absolute certainty).

And the “real” economy is showing  only small signs of recovery, despite optimistic projections based on slim evidence by the Institute of Chartered Accountants.

The real economy is still tough, unemployment continues to rise, insolvencies grow and the banks remain everybody’s favourite hate figures.

There is also a yawning gap between the real UK economy and the unreal world of hedge funds, investment banks and private wealth as a recent rare evening visit to London’s Mayfair brought home to our Managing Director, Roger White – just as much, if not more, blatant wealth was being flaunted in W.1 than before the Credit Crisis!      

What does it all mean for business in the UK? Talking to clients, contacts and friends across Europe, everyone is aware that the UK and US seem to be suffering most. Yet we detect a slow easing of the mood in the UK with budgets being confirmed, commitments being made to projects that were impossible six months ago and perhaps the first signs that recruitment is beginning to turn the corner. 

There are signs, though, that this is a South-Eastern phenomenon. The challenge for Government is in making tough political decisions on tax and public spending that might crush that recovery without doing anything material to improve the lagging position of its own heartlands.

And, as Mick James, editor of Consulting Times, asks, are we at the bottom and just starting the climb back or are we simply climbing a molehill with another precipice on the other side? Scary thought!

This fear that what recovery we are seeing may be a W- rather than a V-shaped recession is there, depending on personality. Cold-hearted analysts are cautious, entrepreneurs know that they would achieve nothing if they listened to analysts – they know that they can make a noble lie become true against almost any odds.

In the professional services sector, though, we may be past the worst. Management consultancy is historically the first into a recession and the first out. While the consultancy market is still dire – Accenture have just announced they are losing a significant number of senior consultants around the world – word in the market suggests a build up in the pressure to start recruiting.

For marketeers it may now be the time to be step up the pace – strategies for growth in the new world order need to be developed and implemented quickly. Monies and resources need to be focused on producing measurable bottom line performance and we will all need to learn to do more with less.

For the brave and the prepared, the future might be exciting – unless your name is, and this is written without political prejudice, Gordon Brown!